cea: Conflict, US Fed coverage main purple flags: CEA V Anantha Nageswaran


The Chief Financial Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran Tuesday recognized the Russia-Ukraine warfare and aggressive stance of the US Federal Reserve on tightening financial coverage as main headwinds, however mentioned the sturdy state of stability sheet throughout the non-public sector would allow the Indian economic system to climate this twin storm.

“These are the 2 purple flags…,” he mentioned, addressing the Nationwide Management Conclave organized by the All India Administration Affiliation.

However the CEA was assured that issues will settle within the second half of this yr. “(In) second half of 2022, blue skies will seem and we are going to witness the sustainable progress that we witnessed throughout 2001-2003,” Nageswaran mentioned. He admitted that the warfare would have a unfavorable impression on power and fertiliser costs, however there could possibly be a two-way impression on meals costs as farmers might benefit from wheat provide disruption from warring international locations.

Oil costs & Progress projection

On the revised progress projections for FY23 within the financial survey, Nageswaran mentioned: “It’s too untimely to say that these projections are accountable for main revision. If oil costs keep over $100 per barrel for fairly a very long time, then solely these projections want revision,” he mentioned. The Financial Survey sees 8-8.5% progress in FY23.

The finance ministry’s month-to-month financial report final week mentioned India could discover it tough to develop quicker than 8% in FY23 if crude costs endured on the present stage for too lengthy whereas cautioning in opposition to the upside threat to inflation in view of the warfare. The RBI, final week, slashed financial progress projection to 7.2% from 7.8% estimated earlier amid unstable crude oil costs and provide chain disruptions brought on by the warfare. It additionally raised the inflation forecast for the yr from 4.5% to five.7%.

CEA, nevertheless, mentioned if oil worth remained above $110 for 1 / 4 or two, then there could also be a necessity for burden sharing. He mentioned that the federal government’s method is to supply focused reduction to the poor as an alternative of omnibus tax discount.

On the potential for an excise reduce on oil, he mentioned that the impression could possibly be 0.2%-0.4% of the GDP relying on how quickly or how a lot excise reduce turns into needed. He mentioned that the budgeted 6.4% fiscal deficit seemed alright because the revenues have been good now.

Non-public sector funding

The funding from the non-public sector has been muted for a few years regardless of a number of measures, together with company tax reduce, taken by the federal government to reinvigorate it.

“Financial institution credit score is starting to choose up particularly within the MSME sector,” he mentioned, including that in all probability by the top of the second quarter or within the second half of the yr, the non-public sector will decide up the capital expenditure baton and run with it.

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