GDP Information: GDP slowdown in This autumn on account of affect of pandemic, excessive commodity costs, say consultants


The slowdown seen in India’s GDP development to a four-quarter low of 4.1 per cent in January-March interval of 2021-22 was primarily on account of affect of the third Covid wave and excessive commodity costs, opined consultants. Indian economic system grew at its slowest tempo in a yr throughout January-March, flattening the Gross Home Product (GDP) development within the full yr to March to eight.7 per cent earlier than Russia’s invasion of Ukraine added a brand new inflation hurdle to the restoration.

The GDP expanded by 4.1 per cent within the ultimate quarter of the 2021-22 fiscal yr, in response to information launched by the Nationwide Statistical Workplace.

This was decrease than the 4.8 per cent development the Chinese language economic system noticed within the quarter.

“Provisional estimates of actual GDP in monetary yr 2021-22 exceeds the pre-pandemic 2019-20 ranges to now set up full financial restoration,” mentioned chief financial adviser V Anantha Nageswaran at a press convention.

Aditi Nayar, chief economist,

, mentioned the slowdown seen in India’s GDP development to a four-quarter low in January-March interval of 2021-22 was inevitable, stemming from the antagonistic affect of the third wave on contact companies, and of excessive commodity costs on margins, in addition to the unfavourable base impact.

“Unsurprisingly, the companies sector was the principle driver of the three.9 per cent GVA development in fourth quarter of FY2022,” she mentioned.

Boosted by authorities spending, Public Administration, Defence and Different Providers (PADOS) stood out because the quickest rising sub-sector of GVA (Gross Worth Added) in January-March quarter of final fiscal, Nayar added.

Rumki Majumdar, economist, Deloitte India, mentioned, the distinction between the actual and nominal GDP means that inflation has been a

downside, and the economic system has been preventing the problem of rising costs for a very long time now.

“Larger costs weighed on client wallets and manufacturing prices. Panic and the seek for safer havens amongst world traders led to capital outflows from rising nations, India being one. This resulted in foreign money depreciation and better import payments,” Majumdar mentioned.

Ramesh Nair, CEO, India & MD, Market Growth, Asia, Colliers, mentioned, India’s GDP grew by 8.7 per cent in 2021-22, staging a significant comeback after a deceleration of 6.6 per cent within the earlier fiscal.

“This clearly signifies that the economic system is out of the woods from the consequences of pandemic and is on its path to restoration. Each housing and workplace demand have a really excessive correlation to GDP, even when pricing cycles are depending on demand and provide dynamics,” he mentioned.

D Ok Srivastava, chief coverage advisor, EY India, mentioned the NSO numbers affirm that every one GDP segments have emerged increased than their pre-Covid magnitudes.

“Going ahead, in 2022-23, the Implicit Worth Deflator (IPD)-based inflation might stay excessive given the present inflationary traits. With the expectation of nominal GDP development in FY23 being considerably above the actual GDP development, the Centre might garner tangibly increased tax revenues in comparison with the funds estimates,” Srivastava added.

In keeping with consultants, the outlook for the present fiscal yr stays clouded as world crude oil costs have hardened again to USD 120 per barrel after elevated sanctions on Russian oil.

Momentum within the companies sector shall be one of many key drivers other than the federal government’s concentrate on enhancing public capital expenditure.

Excessive inflation had led to the Reserve Financial institution elevating the benchmark rate of interest by 40 foundation factors in an unscheduled assessment. It’s anticipated to take comparable measures when the Financial Coverage Committee meets for the bimonthly assessment on June 8.

Authorities’s chief financial adviser Nageswaran dominated out the chance of stagflation in India because the nation is healthier positioned than different nations.

Stagflationary threat to India is sort of low in comparison with different nations, he mentioned.

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