Gen AI might not result in job losses however can shift demand curve, says S&P international chief

“Annually for the final decade, we have thought that technological advance would imply we wanted 10% much less individuals or 20% much less individuals. Right this moment, we’ve got in all probability 40% extra individuals working in these capabilities than we did,” Kansler informed ET in an interview.

He mentioned productiveness features may lead to a shift in demand and that there’s a lengthy technique to go earlier than the web impact of the disruptive and extremely priceless know-how is known. In keeping with him, new applied sciences and startups and a world the place outcomes may develop into extra predictable may additionally result in reversal of some warning by enterprise capital traders and redeployment of capital in 2024.

Nonetheless, he highlighted that when it comes to macro fundamentals, a reversion to outdated occasions must wait.

“I consider you may want to attend a 12 months to grasp what the brand new regular is. I feel the developments present that we’re migrating again to what we noticed within the earlier many years. Will we return to the very low inflation charges and low-interest price environments we noticed 4 or 5 years in the past? Most likely not for a while,” Kansler mentioned.

Whereas the worldwide economic system is getting ready for a comfortable touchdown in 2024, inflation and geopolitcal dangers may threaten a path to restoration, he mentioned.Tender touchdown refers to a slowdown in financial development with out lapsing right into a recession.”Greater than half of the world’s inhabitants is voting within the present 12 months. So, issues may change shortly when it comes to geopolitics,” Kansler mentioned.

India is because of maintain a common election in April-Could, whereas the US will maintain its presidential election in November.

Within the case of India, Deepa Kumar, head, Asia-Pacific Nation Threat, S&P World Market Intelligence, mentioned the purpose for the newly elected authorities will likely be to hold ahead the structural momentum put in place by the outgoing regime.

“Rebalancing in direction of permitting extra personal funding to come back in in order that public expenditure can go in another sectors like infrastructure may assist the nation transfer in direction of 7-7.5% from 6.3% projected over the subsequent decade,” Kumar mentioned.

S&P expects the Indian economic system to develop 7% this 12 months, adopted by 6.5% development in 2024 and 2025 and 6.3% over the subsequent decade. “For a lot of international locations, geopolitics has been a headwind, however for India, it has produced tailwinds. Buying and selling relationships have opened up; there’s much more diplomatic clout. How we leverage these partnerships, appeal to overseas funding and keep exterior competitiveness will affect pushing past 6.3%,” Kumar mentioned.

The priorities for the brand new authorities, based on her, may also be to generate jobs, make sure the continuation of skilling programmes and integration into international worth chains.

(Now you can subscribe to our Financial Instances WhatsApp channel)