GDP: ICRA tasks GDP progress to reasonable to under 6% in Q3

The score company stated the year-on-year progress in ICRA Enterprise Exercise Monitor eased for the second consecutive month to a six-month low of 8.1 per cent in December 2023 — as towards 7.9 per cent in December 2022 and 9.6 per cent in November 2023.

“This may be attributed to a mixture of things, together with easing in momentum of exercise after the tip of the festive interval, tapering of demand for electrical energy and petrol with the onset of the winter season in North India, in addition to unfavourable base results for some indicators,” it stated.

Regardless of a moderation in year-on-year progress, the index witnessed a sequential uptick of 1.4 per cent in December 2023, pushed by eight of the 14 non-financial indicators.

ICRA additional stated whereas the Enterprise Exercise Monitor means that progress in financial exercise remained wholesome within the third quarter of the continuing fiscal, the developments throughout a majority of indicators level to some softness vis-a-vis the earlier quarter, partly on account of base normalisation.

“Given this, together with the stoop in authorities’s capex in October-November 2023 (-8.8 per cent year-on-year), and ICRA’s expectations of little-to-no progress within the agri GVA (Gross Worth Added) owing to the sharp fall in kharif crop output and weak progress of rabi sowing for some crops, we challenge the GDP progress to reasonable under 6 per cent in Q3 FY24 from 7.6 per cent in Q2 FY24,” ICRA stated. The company additionally stated the common every day automobile registrations throughout January 1-16, 2024 had been 39.2 per cent larger than the year-ago interval. Nonetheless, these had been 1.8 per cent decrease than registration of 6,46,000 models/day in December 2023, owing to the inauspicious Kharmas interval, in addition to seasonality, it added.

Moreover, the year-on-year progress in electrical energy demand has risen mildly to three.4 per cent in January 2024 (as much as January 15) from 1.6 per cent in December 2023, whereas remaining muted owing to an elevated base.